This notebook contains a set of analyses for analyzing WatchItPlayed’s boardgamegeek collection. The bulk of the analysis is focused on building a user-specific predictive model to predict the games that the specified user is likely to own. This enables us to ask questions like, based on the games the user currently owns, what games are a good fit for their collection? What upcoming games are they likely to purchase?
We can look at a basic description of the number of games that the user owns, has rated, has previously owned, etc.
What years has the user owned/rated games from? While we can’t see when a user added or removed a game from their collection, we can look at their collection by the years in which their games were published.
We can look at the most frequent types of categories, mechanics, designers, and artists that appear in a user’s collection.
We’ll examine predictive models trained on a user’s collection for games published through 2020. How many games has the user owned/rated/played in the training set (games prior to 2020)?
username | dataset | period | games_owned | games_rated |
WatchItPlayed | training | published before 2020 | 275 | 0 |
WatchItPlayed | validation | published 2020 | 45 | 0 |
WatchItPlayed | test | published after 2020 | 71 | 0 |
The main outcome we will be modeling for the user is owned, which refers to whether the user currently owns or has a previously owned a game in their collection. Our goal is to train a predictive model to learn the probability that a user will add a game to their collection based on its observable features. This amounts to looking at historical data and looking to find patterns that exist between features of games and games present in the user’s collection.
One of the models we trained was a decision tree, which looks for decision rules that can be used to separate games the user owns from games they don’t. The resulting model produces a decision corresponding to yes or no statements: to explain why the model predicts the user to own game, we start at the top of the tree and follow the rules that were learned from the training data.
Note: the tree below has been further pruned to make it easier to visualize.
Decision trees are highly interpretible models that are easy to train and can identify important interactions and nonlinearities present in the data. Individual trees have the drawback of being less predictive than other common models, but it can be useful to look at them to gain some understanding of key predictors and relationships found in the training data.
We can examine coefficients from another model we trained, which is a logistic regression with elastic net regularization (which I will refer to as a penalized logistic regression). Positive values indicate that a feature increases a user’s probability of owning/rating a game, while negative values indicate a feature decreases the probability. To be precise, the coefficients indicate the effect of a particular feature on the log-odds of a user owning a game.
Why did the model identify these features? We can make density plots of the important features for predicting whether the user owned a game. Blue indicates the density for games owned by the user, while grey indicates the density for games not owned by the user.
Binary predictors can be difficult to see with this visualization, so we can also directly examine the percentage of games in a user’s collection with a predictor vs the percentage of all games with that predictor.
% of Games with Feature | ||||
username | Feature | User_Collection | All_Games | Ratio |
WatchItPlayed | Asmodee | 16.0% | 2.5% | 6.48 |
WatchItPlayed | Stronghold Games | 3.3% | 0.6% | 5.78 |
WatchItPlayed | Fantasy Flight Games | 5.8% | 1.1% | 5.18 |
WatchItPlayed | Solo Solitaire Game | 15.3% | 3.2% | 4.84 |
WatchItPlayed | ZMan Games | 6.5% | 1.4% | 4.72 |
WatchItPlayed | GMT Games | 5.8% | 1.3% | 4.56 |
WatchItPlayed | Combinatorial | 4.4% | 1.6% | 2.70 |
WatchItPlayed | Paper And Pencil | 5.8% | 2.3% | 2.52 |
WatchItPlayed | 3D Components | 3.6% | 1.4% | 2.52 |
WatchItPlayed | Deduction Game | 10.9% | 5.0% | 2.17 |
WatchItPlayed | Hand Management | 39.3% | 19.9% | 1.97 |
WatchItPlayed | Party Game | 17.5% | 9.3% | 1.88 |
WatchItPlayed | Dice Rolling | 24.0% | 28.5% | 0.84 |
WatchItPlayed | Hexagon Grid | 5.1% | 11.8% | 0.43 |
WatchItPlayed | Trading | 1.1% | 3.0% | 0.36 |
WatchItPlayed | Pickup And Deliver | 0.4% | 2.7% | 0.13 |
Before predicting games in upcoming years, we can examine how well the model did and what games it liked in the training set. In this case, we used resampling techniques (cross validation) to ensure that the model had not seen a game before making its predictions.
Displaying the 100 games from the training set with the highest probability of ownership, highlighting in blue games the user has owned.
Rank | Published | ID | Name | Pr(Owned) | Owned |
1 | 2019 | 286096 | Tapestry | 0.954 | yes |
2 | 2018 | 205896 | Rising Sun | 0.947 | no |
3 | 2016 | 169786 | Scythe | 0.734 | yes |
4 | 2017 | 233078 | Twilight Imperium: Fourth Edition | 0.734 | no |
5 | 2015 | 181304 | Mysterium | 0.666 | no |
6 | 2013 | 143693 | Glass Road | 0.647 | no |
7 | 2010 | 70512 | Luna | 0.621 | no |
8 | 2019 | 270971 | Era: Medieval Age | 0.603 | no |
9 | 2010 | 62219 | Dominant Species | 0.599 | no |
10 | 2010 | 65200 | Asteroyds | 0.571 | no |
11 | 2012 | 123096 | Space Cadets | 0.553 | no |
12 | 2015 | 183394 | Viticulture Essential Edition | 0.550 | no |
13 | 2018 | 244711 | Newton | 0.542 | no |
14 | 2019 | 266192 | Wingspan | 0.531 | yes |
15 | 2017 | 220308 | Gaia Project | 0.525 | no |
16 | 2010 | 62227 | Labyrinth: The War on Terror, 2001 – ? | 0.523 | no |
17 | 2016 | 163154 | Falling Sky: The Gallic Revolt Against Caesar | 0.495 | yes |
18 | 2019 | 265736 | Tiny Towns | 0.482 | yes |
19 | 2018 | 199792 | Everdell | 0.470 | no |
20 | 2017 | 226320 | My Little Scythe | 0.447 | no |
21 | 2017 | 193728 | Pendragon: The Fall of Roman Britain | 0.446 | yes |
22 | 2016 | 167791 | Terraforming Mars | 0.439 | yes |
23 | 2019 | 276025 | Maracaibo | 0.428 | no |
24 | 2010 | 73439 | Troyes | 0.414 | no |
25 | 2012 | 129622 | Love Letter | 0.412 | no |
26 | 2016 | 187645 | Star Wars: Rebellion | 0.411 | yes |
27 | 2013 | 133848 | Euphoria: Build a Better Dystopia | 0.409 | no |
28 | 2016 | 176083 | Hit Z Road | 0.400 | no |
29 | 2015 | 175878 | 504 | 0.395 | no |
30 | 2018 | 260428 | Pandemic: Fall of Rome | 0.390 | no |
31 | 2015 | 170216 | Blood Rage | 0.381 | yes |
32 | 2014 | 159508 | AquaSphere | 0.380 | yes |
33 | 2013 | 144239 | Impulse | 0.378 | no |
34 | 2019 | 281946 | Aftermath | 0.376 | no |
35 | 2009 | 43868 | The Adventurers: The Temple of Chac | 0.370 | no |
36 | 2019 | 220558 | Ancient Civilizations of the Inner Sea | 0.370 | no |
37 | 2019 | 285984 | Last Bastion | 0.357 | no |
38 | 2018 | 245654 | Railroad Ink: Deep Blue Edition | 0.355 | no |
39 | 2014 | 148228 | Splendor | 0.342 | yes |
40 | 2000 | 478 | Citadels | 0.341 | yes |
41 | 2016 | 205637 | Arkham Horror: The Card Game | 0.341 | yes |
42 | 2017 | 197376 | Charterstone | 0.337 | no |
43 | 2009 | 40692 | Small World | 0.327 | yes |
44 | 2017 | 162886 | Spirit Island | 0.322 | no |
45 | 2016 | 160010 | Conan | 0.320 | no |
46 | 2019 | 270673 | Silver & Gold | 0.319 | no |
47 | 2016 | 200680 | Agricola (Revised Edition) | 0.309 | no |
48 | 2006 | 21882 | Blue Moon City | 0.290 | no |
49 | 2013 | 146818 | Cappuccino | 0.282 | no |
50 | 2019 | 244099 | Herbaceous Sprouts | 0.280 | no |
51 | 2004 | 10630 | Memoir '44 | 0.279 | no |
52 | 1997 | 42 | Tigris & Euphrates | 0.278 | no |
53 | 2008 | 37111 | Battlestar Galactica: The Board Game | 0.277 | no |
54 | 2015 | 168435 | Between Two Cities | 0.276 | no |
55 | 2014 | 154203 | Imperial Settlers | 0.259 | no |
56 | 2017 | 221107 | Pandemic Legacy: Season 2 | 0.257 | no |
57 | 2005 | 18258 | Mission: Red Planet | 0.256 | no |
58 | 2017 | 209778 | Magic Maze | 0.254 | no |
59 | 2017 | 164949 | Time of Crisis: The Roman Empire in Turmoil, 235-284 AD | 0.249 | yes |
60 | 2004 | 9220 | Saboteur | 0.249 | no |
61 | 2017 | 199904 | Pericles: The Peloponnesian Wars | 0.247 | no |
62 | 2018 | 245934 | Carpe Diem | 0.247 | no |
63 | 2009 | 54998 | Cyclades | 0.244 | yes |
64 | 2015 | 173090 | The Game | 0.239 | no |
65 | 2019 | 295564 | Unmatched Game System | 0.236 | no |
66 | 2011 | 70919 | Takenoko | 0.233 | yes |
67 | 2018 | 245422 | Werewords Deluxe Edition | 0.231 | no |
68 | 2015 | 181279 | Fury of Dracula (Third/Fourth Edition) | 0.230 | no |
69 | 2015 | 182694 | Watson & Holmes | 0.229 | no |
70 | 2018 | 222509 | Lords of Hellas | 0.228 | no |
71 | 2017 | 234671 | Pandemic: Rising Tide | 0.228 | no |
72 | 2016 | 200785 | Legendary Inventors | 0.228 | no |
73 | 2015 | 161226 | The Builders: Antiquity | 0.226 | no |
74 | 2011 | 103343 | A Game of Thrones: The Board Game (Second Edition) | 0.226 | no |
75 | 2004 | 9609 | War of the Ring | 0.226 | no |
76 | 2017 | 233678 | Indian Summer | 0.225 | no |
77 | 2014 | 158899 | Colt Express | 0.225 | no |
78 | 2019 | 285774 | Marvel Champions: The Card Game | 0.224 | no |
79 | 2012 | 117915 | Yedo | 0.220 | no |
80 | 2016 | 177736 | A Feast for Odin | 0.219 | no |
81 | 2014 | 152241 | Ultimate Werewolf | 0.219 | no |
82 | 2014 | 147949 | One Night Ultimate Werewolf | 0.219 | no |
83 | 2017 | 174430 | Gloomhaven | 0.217 | no |
84 | 2016 | 195856 | Bloodborne: The Card Game | 0.217 | no |
85 | 2006 | 25417 | BattleLore | 0.216 | no |
86 | 2013 | 140620 | Lewis & Clark: The Expedition | 0.216 | no |
87 | 2018 | 246297 | Shadows: Amsterdam | 0.214 | no |
88 | 2005 | 18723 | Aye, Dark Overlord! The Red Box | 0.211 | no |
89 | 2013 | 124361 | Concordia | 0.210 | yes |
90 | 2011 | 102548 | Dungeon Fighter | 0.209 | no |
91 | 2019 | 266507 | Clank!: Legacy – Acquisitions Incorporated | 0.208 | no |
92 | 2013 | 127024 | Room 25 | 0.205 | no |
93 | 2016 | 194880 | Dream Home | 0.205 | no |
94 | 2012 | 120677 | Terra Mystica | 0.204 | yes |
95 | 2018 | 240464 | Cosmic Run: Regeneration | 0.203 | no |
96 | 2009 | 39683 | At the Gates of Loyang | 0.203 | no |
97 | 1971 | 594 | Sleuth | 0.202 | no |
98 | 2018 | 256916 | Concordia Venus | 0.202 | no |
99 | 2014 | 163412 | Patchwork | 0.200 | yes |
100 | 2017 | 180199 | Colonial Twilight: The French-Algerian War, 1954-62 | 0.199 | yes |
This section contains a variety of visualizations and metrics for assessing the performance of the model(s) during resampling. If you’re not particularly interested in predictive modeling, skip down further to the predictions from the model.
An easy way to examine the performance of classification model is to view a separation plot. We plot the predicted probabilities from the model for every game (from resampling) from lowest to highest. We then overlay a blue line for any game that the user does own. A good classifier is one that is able to separate the blue (games owned by the user) from the white (games not owned by the user), with most of the blue occurring at the highest probabilities (right side of the chart).
We can more formally assess how well each model did in resampling by looking at the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve. A perfect model would receive a score of 1, while a model that cannot predict the outcome will default to a score of 0.5. The extent to which something is a good score depends on the setting, but generally anything in the .8 to .9 range is very good while the .7 to .8 range is perfectly acceptable.
wflow_id | .metric | .estimator | .estimate |
GLM | roc_auc | binary | 0.84 |
Decision Tree | roc_auc | binary | 0.70 |
Another way to think about the model performance is to view its lift, or its ability to detect the positive outcomes over that of a null model. High lift indicates the model can much more quickly find all of the positive outcomes (in this case, games owned or played by the user), while a model with no lift is no better than random guessing. A gains chart is another way to view this.
While we are probably more interested in the lift provided by the models to evaluate their efficacy, we can also explore the optimal cutpoint if we wanted to define a hard threshold for identifying games a user will own vs not own.
The threshold we select depends on how we much we care about false positives (games the model predicts that the user does not own) vs false negatives (games the user owns that the model does not predict). We can toggle threshold to
Finally, we can understand the performance of the model by examining its calibration. If the model assigns a probability of 5%, how often does the outcome actually occur? A well calibrated model is one in which the predicted probabilities reflect the probabilities we would observe in the actual data. We can assess the calibration of a model by grouping its predictions into bins and assessing how often we observe the outcome versus how often our model expects to observe the outcome.
A model that is well calibrated will closely follow the dashed line - its expected probabilities match that of the observed probabilities. A model that consistently underestimates the probability of the event will be over this dashed line, be a while a model that overestimates the probability will be under the dashed line.
What games does the model think WatchItPlayed is most likely to own that are not in their collection?
Published | ID | Name | Pr(Owned) | Owned |
2018 | 205896 | Rising Sun | 0.947 | no |
2017 | 233078 | Twilight Imperium: Fourth Edition | 0.734 | no |
2015 | 181304 | Mysterium | 0.666 | no |
2013 | 143693 | Glass Road | 0.647 | no |
2010 | 70512 | Luna | 0.621 | no |
What games does the model think WatchItPlayed is least likely to own that are in their collection?
Published | ID | Name | Pr(Owned) | Owned |
1960 | 148203 | Dutch Blitz | 0.002 | yes |
2009 | 54625 | Space Hulk (Third Edition) | 0.003 | yes |
2003 | 12171 | Le Passe-Trappe | 0.003 | yes |
2013 | 139747 | Arena Rex | 0.004 | yes |
2018 | 247104 | Blitz Bowl | 0.004 | yes |
Top 25 games most likely to be owned by the user in each year, highlighting in blue the games that the user has owned.
rank | 2012 | 2013 | 2014 | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 |
1 | Space Cadets | Glass Road | AquaSphere | Mysterium | Scythe | Twilight Imperium: Fourth Edition | Rising Sun | Tapestry |
2 | Love Letter | Euphoria: Build a Better Dystopia | Splendor | Viticulture Essential Edition | Falling Sky: The Gallic Revolt Against Caesar | Gaia Project | Newton | Era: Medieval Age |
3 | Yedo | Impulse | Imperial Settlers | 504 | Terraforming Mars | My Little Scythe | Everdell | Wingspan |
4 | Terra Mystica | Cappuccino | Colt Express | Blood Rage | Star Wars: Rebellion | Pendragon: The Fall of Roman Britain | Pandemic: Fall of Rome | Tiny Towns |
5 | Robinson Crusoe: Adventures on the Cursed Island | Lewis & Clark: The Expedition | Ultimate Werewolf | Between Two Cities | Hit Z Road | Charterstone | Railroad Ink: Deep Blue Edition | Maracaibo |
6 | Android: Netrunner | Concordia | One Night Ultimate Werewolf | The Game | Arkham Horror: The Card Game | Spirit Island | Carpe Diem | Aftermath |
7 | Kemet | Room 25 | Patchwork | Fury of Dracula (Third/Fourth Edition) | Conan | Pandemic Legacy: Season 2 | Werewords Deluxe Edition | Ancient Civilizations of the Inner Sea |
8 | Timeline: General Interest | Timeline: Music & Cinema | Five Tribes | Watson & Holmes | Agricola (Revised Edition) | Magic Maze | Lords of Hellas | Last Bastion |
9 | Zombicide | Tash-Kalar: Arena of Legends | Pandemic: The Cure | The Builders: Antiquity | Legendary Inventors | Time of Crisis: The Roman Empire in Turmoil, 235-284 AD | Shadows: Amsterdam | Silver & Gold |
10 | Descent: Journeys in the Dark (Second Edition) | Crossing | King of New York | The King Is Dead | A Feast for Odin | Pericles: The Peloponnesian Wars | Cosmic Run: Regeneration | Herbaceous Sprouts |
11 | Wiz-War (Eighth Edition) | City of Remnants | Nations: The Dice Game | Pandemic Legacy: Season 1 | Bloodborne: The Card Game | Pandemic: Rising Tide | Concordia Venus | Unmatched Game System |
12 | Libertalia | The Hunters: German U-Boats at War, 1939-43 | Deception: Murder in Hong Kong | Pirates of the 7 Seas | Dream Home | Indian Summer | Neon Gods | Marvel Champions: The Card Game |
13 | Timeline | Viticulture | Camel Up | One Night Ultimate Werewolf: Daybreak | Dead of Winter: The Long Night | Gloomhaven | KeyForge: Call of the Archons | Clank!: Legacy – Acquisitions Incorporated |
14 | Cardline: Animals | BANG! The Dice Game | Timeline: Americana | The Voyages of Marco Polo | Great Western Trail | Photosynthesis | Book of Dragons | KeyForge: Age of Ascension |
15 | Keyflower | Cardline: Globetrotter | Timeline: Sports et Loisirs | Mombasa | Sherlock Holmes Consulting Detective: Jack the Ripper & West End Adventures | Colonial Twilight: The French-Algerian War, 1954-62 | Ultimate Werewolf Legacy | The Lord of the Rings: Journeys in Middle-Earth |
16 | Mafia: Vendetta | Cuba Libre | Fields of Arle | Timeline Challenge | Cottage Garden | Breaking Bad: The Board Game | Root | The Mind Extreme |
17 | Open Sesame | Rococo | La Granja | My Village | Encore! | Calimala | Between Two Castles of Mad King Ludwig | Subtext |
18 | Coup | 1862: Railway Mania in the Eastern Counties | Gaïa | Star Trek: Five-Year Mission | Word Slam | This War of Mine: The Board Game | The World of SMOG: Rise of Moloch | The Only Word: the Party Word Game |
19 | Agricola: All Creatures Big and Small | Legacy: The Testament of Duke de Crecy | Kill Shakespeare | Salem 1692 | Codenames: Pictures | The Godfather: Corleone's Empire | Fireball Island: The Curse of Vul-Kar | Mental Blocks |
20 | Andean Abyss | The Builders: Middle Ages | Black Fleet | Elysium | Citadels | Merlin | Fort Sumter: The Secession Crisis, 1860-61 | Machi Koro Legacy |
21 | I'm the Boss!: The Card Game | Capo Dei Capi | DungeonQuest Revised Edition | Timeline: Québec | Inis | Dinosaur Island | Gen7: A Crossroads Game | Slyville |
22 | Il Vecchio | Bruxelles 1893 | Fire in the Lake | Codenames | Flamme Rouge | Secrets | Duelosaur Island | Ohanami |
23 | Scripts and Scribes: The Dice Game | A Distant Plain | Cubist | Unusual Suspects | Captain Sonar | The Castles of Burgundy: The Dice Game | SpaceCorp: 2025-2300AD | Caylus 1303 |
24 | The Resistance: Avalon | Ladies & Gentlemen | Abyss | Triumph & Tragedy: European Balance of Power 1936-1945 | Game of Thrones: The Iron Throne | Sherlock Holmes Consulting Detective: Carlton House & Queen's Park | Timeline: Classic | Peloponnesian War |
25 | Shadows over Camelot: The Card Game | Navajo Wars | Sheriff of Nottingham | Raptor | Codenames: Deep Undercover | One Night Ultimate Alien | Unlock!: Escape Adventures – In Pursuit of Cabrakan | Warhammer Underworlds: Beastgrave |
This is an interactive table for the model’s predictions for the training set (from resampling).
We’ll validate the model by looking at its predictions for games published in 2020. That is, how well did a model trained on a user’s collection through 2020 perform in predicting games for the user in 2020?
username | outcome | dataset | method | .metric | .estimate |
WatchItPlayed | owned | validation | GLM | roc_auc | 0.722 |
WatchItPlayed | owned | validation | Decision Tree | roc_auc | 0.659 |
Table of top 50 games from 2020, highlighting games that the user owns.
Published | ID | Name | Pr(Owned) | Owned |
2020 | 312804 | Pendulum | 0.432 | no |
2020 | 291457 | Gloomhaven: Jaws of the Lion | 0.378 | yes |
2020 | 314040 | Pandemic Legacy: Season 0 | 0.359 | yes |
2020 | 306481 | Tawantinsuyu: The Inca Empire | 0.348 | no |
2020 | 304420 | Bonfire | 0.341 | no |
2020 | 184267 | On Mars | 0.328 | no |
2020 | 253506 | Versailles 1919 | 0.297 | no |
2020 | 256317 | Guild Master | 0.227 | no |
2020 | 300322 | Hallertau | 0.208 | no |
2020 | 292333 | Cowboys II: Cowboys & Indians Edition | 0.203 | no |
2020 | 296626 | Sonora | 0.199 | no |
2020 | 319966 | The King Is Dead: Second Edition | 0.170 | yes |
2020 | 189664 | The Hunted: Twilight of the U-Boats, 1943-45 | 0.162 | no |
2020 | 294484 | Unmatched: Cobble & Fog | 0.158 | yes |
2020 | 315060 | Unmatched: Buffy the Vampire Slayer | 0.158 | yes |
2020 | 246900 | Eclipse: Second Dawn for the Galaxy | 0.155 | no |
2020 | 299179 | Chancellorsville 1863 | 0.147 | no |
2020 | 298572 | Cosmic Encounter Duel | 0.140 | no |
2020 | 316554 | Dune: Imperium | 0.135 | yes |
2020 | 298371 | Wild Space | 0.134 | no |
2020 | 325635 | Unmatched: Little Red Riding Hood vs. Beowulf | 0.128 | yes |
2020 | 255456 | Beneath the Med: Regia Marina at Sea 1940-1943 | 0.120 | no |
2020 | 284777 | Unmatched: Jurassic Park – InGen vs Raptors | 0.118 | no |
2020 | 316377 | 7 Wonders (Second Edition) | 0.114 | no |
2020 | 316412 | The LOOP | 0.112 | no |
2020 | 301767 | Mysterium Park | 0.110 | yes |
2020 | 304285 | Infinity Gauntlet: A Love Letter Game | 0.107 | no |
2020 | 302425 | Unlock!: Mythic Adventures | 0.106 | no |
2020 | 296345 | Sherlock Holmes Consulting Detective: The Baker Street Irregulars | 0.106 | no |
2020 | 318183 | Prehistories | 0.103 | no |
2020 | 294788 | Conqueror: Final Conquest | 0.101 | no |
2020 | 301880 | Raiders of Scythia | 0.100 | no |
2020 | 229782 | Roland Wright: The Dice Game | 0.099 | no |
2020 | 274841 | Cóatl | 0.098 | no |
2020 | 301919 | Pandemic: Hot Zone – North America | 0.098 | yes |
2020 | 312267 | Star Wars: Unlock! | 0.098 | no |
2020 | 319794 | Timeline: Chile | 0.095 | no |
2020 | 303672 | Trek 12: Himalaya | 0.094 | no |
2020 | 233262 | Tidal Blades: Heroes of the Reef | 0.092 | no |
2020 | 318084 | Furnace | 0.092 | yes |
2020 | 282081 | The Zorro Dice Game | 0.091 | no |
2020 | 296512 | The Game: Quick & Easy | 0.091 | no |
2020 | 302465 | Obsidia | 0.089 | no |
2020 | 297030 | Tekhenu: Obelisk of the Sun | 0.089 | no |
2020 | 281075 | Welcome to New Las Vegas | 0.083 | no |
2020 | 242520 | All Bridges Burning: Red Revolt and White Guard in Finland, 1917-1918 | 0.081 | yes |
2020 | 257001 | Munchkin Dungeon | 0.081 | no |
2020 | 252153 | Tang Garden | 0.080 | no |
2020 | 276386 | Caesar: Rome vs. Gaul | 0.079 | no |
2020 | 313698 | Monster Expedition | 0.078 | no |
We can then refit our model to the training and validation set in order to predict all upcoming games for the user.
Examine the top 100 upcoming games, highlighting in blue ones the user already owns.
Rank | Published | ID | Name | Pr(Owned) | Owned |
1 | 2022 | 310873 | Carnegie | 0.635 | no |
2 | 2022 | 349067 | The Lord of the Rings: The Card Game – Revised Core Set | 0.502 | no |
3 | 2021 | 285967 | Ankh: Gods of Egypt | 0.450 | no |
4 | 2023 | 349793 | Age of Rome | 0.421 | no |
5 | 2022 | 256680 | Return to Dark Tower | 0.392 | yes |
6 | 2021 | 329465 | Red Rising | 0.349 | no |
7 | 2021 | 342073 | Berried Treasure | 0.346 | no |
8 | 2022 | 317511 | Tindaya | 0.324 | no |
9 | 2023 | 347909 | Rogue Angels: Legacy of the Burning Suns | 0.312 | no |
10 | 2021 | 305682 | Rolling Realms | 0.270 | yes |
11 | 2022 | 335764 | Unmatched: Battle of Legends, Volume Two | 0.265 | yes |
12 | 2021 | 340466 | Unfathomable | 0.263 | no |
13 | 2022 | 326933 | Unmatched: Redemption Row | 0.260 | yes |
14 | 2022 | 326934 | Unmatched: Hell's Kitchen | 0.260 | yes |
15 | 2022 | 315610 | Massive Darkness 2: Hellscape | 0.245 | no |
16 | 2022 | 331106 | The Witcher: Old World | 0.245 | no |
17 | 2022 | 295770 | Frosthaven | 0.242 | no |
18 | 2022 | 356033 | Libertalia: Winds of Galecrest | 0.237 | yes |
19 | 2022 | 341945 | La Granja: Deluxe Master Set | 0.235 | no |
20 | 2021 | 339789 | Welcome to the Moon | 0.235 | no |
21 | 2021 | 298102 | Roll Camera!: The Filmmaking Board Game | 0.230 | no |
22 | 2021 | 304783 | Hadrian's Wall | 0.223 | yes |
23 | 2021 | 343905 | Boonlake | 0.220 | yes |
24 | 2021 | 340237 | Wonder Book | 0.217 | no |
25 | 2022 | 284778 | Unmatched: Jurassic Park – Dr. Sattler vs. T. Rex | 0.206 | yes |
26 | 2021 | 249277 | Brazil: Imperial | 0.205 | no |
27 | 2021 | 339906 | The Hunger | 0.203 | no |
28 | 2021 | 342942 | Ark Nova | 0.183 | no |
29 | 2021 | 262941 | Dominant Species: Marine | 0.169 | yes |
30 | 2021 | 344277 | Corrosion | 0.167 | no |
31 | 2021 | 273330 | Bloodborne: The Board Game | 0.162 | no |
32 | 2021 | 306202 | Philosophia: Floating World | 0.150 | no |
33 | 2021 | 296577 | Red Flag Over Paris | 0.148 | yes |
34 | 2021 | 313730 | Harsh Shadows | 0.146 | no |
35 | 2022 | 266064 | Trudvang Legends | 0.146 | no |
36 | 2021 | 295947 | Cascadia | 0.143 | yes |
37 | 2021 | 290236 | Canvas | 0.140 | no |
38 | 2022 | 305096 | Endless Winter: Paleoamericans | 0.134 | no |
39 | 2021 | 332944 | Sobek: 2 Players | 0.132 | no |
40 | 2021 | 308989 | Bristol 1350 | 0.129 | no |
41 | 2021 | 338834 | MicroMacro: Crime City – Full House | 0.126 | no |
42 | 2023 | 312959 | Rallyman: DIRT | 0.126 | no |
43 | 2021 | 344258 | That Time You Killed Me | 0.125 | no |
44 | 2021 | 295535 | Dark Ages: Heritage of Charlemagne | 0.125 | no |
45 | 2021 | 304985 | Dark Ages: Holy Roman Empire | 0.125 | no |
46 | 2022 | 347703 | First Rat | 0.124 | no |
47 | 2021 | 339790 | Cocktail | 0.122 | no |
48 | 2021 | 340909 | Gloomholdin' | 0.119 | no |
49 | 2022 | 280726 | Legacies | 0.119 | no |
50 | 2021 | 314491 | Meadow | 0.117 | no |
51 | 2021 | 338980 | Eastern Empires | 0.117 | no |
52 | 2021 | 286751 | Zombicide: 2nd Edition | 0.114 | yes |
53 | 2021 | 333553 | For the King (and Me) | 0.114 | no |
54 | 2021 | 341169 | Great Western Trail (Second Edition) | 0.114 | no |
55 | 2021 | 331635 | Kameloot | 0.112 | no |
56 | 2021 | 342848 | World of Warcraft: Wrath of the Lich King | 0.111 | yes |
57 | 2021 | 299255 | Vienna Connection | 0.110 | yes |
58 | 2021 | 291572 | Oath: Chronicles of Empire and Exile | 0.110 | no |
59 | 2021 | 336382 | Marvel United: X-Men | 0.108 | no |
60 | 2021 | 316287 | Quest | 0.105 | no |
61 | 2021 | 340677 | Bad Company | 0.104 | no |
62 | 2022 | 322524 | Bardsung | 0.104 | no |
63 | 2021 | 281248 | Cape May | 0.101 | no |
64 | 2021 | 301366 | Caves of Rwenzori | 0.098 | no |
65 | 2022 | 353470 | Star Wars: Jabba's Palace – A Love Letter Game | 0.096 | no |
66 | 2021 | 318184 | Imperium: Classics | 0.096 | no |
67 | 2022 | 319807 | Shogun no Katana | 0.095 | no |
68 | 2021 | 331549 | MiniQuest Adventures | 0.095 | no |
69 | 2021 | 283242 | The Whatnot Cabinet | 0.094 | no |
70 | 2021 | 329670 | Pandemic: Hot Zone – Europe | 0.091 | yes |
71 | 2022 | 299106 | Fractal: Beyond the Void | 0.090 | no |
72 | 2021 | 320446 | Corduba 27 a.C. | 0.089 | no |
73 | 2021 | 307862 | Dollars to Donuts | 0.089 | no |
74 | 2021 | 324242 | Sheepy Time | 0.088 | no |
75 | 2021 | 319899 | Decktective: Nightmare in the Mirror | 0.087 | no |
76 | 2021 | 319263 | One Card Dungeon | 0.087 | no |
77 | 2021 | 318322 | Hidden Strike: American Revolution | 0.086 | no |
78 | 2021 | 283387 | Rocketmen | 0.086 | no |
79 | 2022 | 338460 | The Isle of Cats: Explore & Draw | 0.085 | no |
80 | 2021 | 251747 | Atlantic Chase | 0.082 | no |
81 | 2022 | 273814 | Deliverance | 0.081 | no |
82 | 2022 | 334065 | Verdant | 0.080 | no |
83 | 2021 | 259066 | Commands & Colors: Samurai Battles | 0.079 | no |
84 | 2021 | 320960 | Roll In One | 0.079 | no |
85 | 2022 | 320718 | Hidden Leaders | 0.079 | no |
86 | 2021 | 299566 | Batman: The Animated Series Adventures – Shadow of the Bat | 0.077 | no |
87 | 2022 | 342444 | Black Rose Wars: Rebirth | 0.077 | no |
88 | 2022 | 326945 | Castles of Mad King Ludwig: Collector's Edition | 0.077 | no |
89 | 2021 | 291847 | Mantis Falls | 0.075 | no |
90 | 2022 | 346199 | A Game of Thrones: B'Twixt | 0.075 | no |
91 | 2022 | 338067 | 6: Siege – The Board Game | 0.074 | no |
92 | 2022 | 295374 | Long Shot: The Dice Game | 0.074 | no |
93 | 2021 | 340834 | Gravwell: 2nd Edition | 0.073 | yes |
94 | 2021 | 339905 | Love Letter: Princess Princess Ever After | 0.072 | no |
95 | 2023 | 315727 | Last Light | 0.072 | no |
96 | 2021 | 311920 | Ultimate Werewolf: Extreme | 0.072 | no |
97 | 2021 | 347304 | Time's Up!: Harry Potter | 0.072 | no |
98 | 2021 | 252752 | Genotype: A Mendelian Genetics Game | 0.072 | no |
99 | 2021 | 334782 | Bayou Bash | 0.071 | no |
100 | 2021 | 339484 | Savannah Park | 0.071 | yes |